Alright, let’s figure out where we are. As you may remember, after analyzing the Little States (under 6 Electoral College Votes), the decided Big States (Texas, California and New York) and those that have voted the same way for years among the rest, before the true Battleground States, the nearly inevitable score before the campaigning even begins, has the Democrats up by 11 Electoral College votes:
Let’s assume that the Democrats are able to swing the three very tight northern States back to their side and retain Minnesota, but Trump retains Florida and Ohio, both the long-time swing States. This might not happen, but what would the result be if it did?
Pennsylvania is 20 Electoral College Votes
Michigan is 16.
Wisconsin is 10 and so is Minnesota.
That is 56 Electoral College votes. Added to 223 would give them 279 Electoral College Votes. Nine more than required to win, and accomplished without either Ohio or Florida!
Even if the Republicans won both Ohio (18) and Florida (29) in this scenario, they would end up with only 259 Electoral Votes and would lose. How about that? Big IF, especially as to Pennsylvania, which they Dems have to win, unless they win Florida.
IF, however, either Wisconsin or Minnesota go to the Republicans, it is a virtual tie at 269, but is it?
In this case, the two small split-vote states, Maine and Nebraska, could decide the election. How about that?
- Nebraska is worth 5, and could go 3 to Trump and 2 to Biden, but not necessarily.
- Maine is only worth 4, and the way it splits votes is very confusing, but 2 for sure would go to Biden. Biden could get 3 with the win, the way I read it.
So depending on how they are allocated, one side will receive 5 of the slit votes and the other only 4, and that candidate wins. Oddly, it is the loser who gets the split votes. So, if Biden loses Nebraska kinda close so he gets 2 from that State, and wins Maine by enough to get 3 of the 4, Biden wins by 1 Electoral Vote. It could go the other way in Maine and Trump wins 5 – 4. It could easily all come down to these tiny, but powerful, States. That would be fun on election night! Kinda rooting for that outcome.
It could also end up tied, under these weird splitting rules. In that case, under the Constitution, the decision goes to the House of Representatives, BUT, instead of each Rep getting a vote, each State receives 1 votes. The Representatives of each State vote and the winner among them is how the State votes. That would be a nightmare.
BUT, no candidate has won without winning BOTH Ohio and Florida in forever. Could this be the year?