There are four States significantly larger than the others, with 29 or more Electoral College Votes – the Big States. They are:
California – 55 – Solidly Democrat
Texas – 38 – Solidly Republican
New York – 29 – Solidly Democrat
Florida – 29 – Battleground State
While the Republicans begin with a 30 Electoral Collage advantage among the little States, the Democrats begin with a nice 46 Electoral College advantage among the Big States, but remember this approximates their popular vote since the 2 extra votes for Senators are much less relevant in this group. That makes the Electoral Vote score on the way to 270:
Since 2000, whoever wins Florida, wins the election and it is always razor close.
We will examine Florida in more detail in a later post, but as you watch the returns, remember that while it is cool to win these big States, they are already decided, except for Florida.
In addition, the two extra votes they receive from their Senators are almost irrelevant in these States. As mentioned, California is 104% represented in the EC. Texas is 105% and New York and Florida are at 107% versus their popular vote. Much lower than any of the small states, which helps to eliminate the value of the popular vote. Understand this as you work to win this election.
As can be seen above, if the Democrats lose Florida, they blow their strong lead, while winning it makes a comeback by the Republicans very difficult. To say Florida is important would be a pretty significant understatement, but it is not even close to being the end of the game.