So, the Republicans are winning 18 to 9 on the way to 270 and we are already way out of whack versus the popular vote values of these States. Later, we’ll look at whether this is set in stone.
Another 14 States have between 4 – 6 Electoral College votes, meaning their populations are at least 150% represented in the Electoral College. R means the State votes Republican. D means it votes Democrat.
Six States garner 6 Electoral College votes (4 for the population and 2 for Senators, or 150% of the population): Arkansas (R), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Mississippi (R), Nevada (D), and Utah (R).
Three States receive 5 Electors (3 for population and 2 Senators or a 167% representation to the population): Nebraska (R), New Mexico (D) and West Virginia (R). One on each side so these balance.
Five States have only 4 which is 200% or twice the population: Idaho (R), Hawaii (D), Maine (D), New Hampshire (D), and Rhode Island (D).
These Tiny and Very Small States represent 37.5 million Americans with 95 Electoral Votes.
California’s population is 39 million and Texas has 29 million, nearly 70 million Americans, but between these two most populous States in the US, they receive only 93 Electoral Votes. Nearly twice the population and 2 fewer Electoral College votes than the little guys!
Do you think these unappreciated States have some clout after all?
Considering how the States have voted, the Republicans will likely garner 44 Electoral College Electors to the Democrat’s 27 from this group, pretty much before the game even begins. This from States that are at least 150% over-represented in the Electoral College as compared to their populations. So, between the Tiny and Really Small States, the Republicans take an early lead toward 270:
Among all of the little States, based on the solid R’s and D’s, that is 23 more Republican Electors from States that are dramatically over-represented as compared to their populations.
For perspective, 23 Electoral College votes allows the Republicans to more than negate the Dems’ win in Illinois which has 20 votes. All of these tiny, ignored, under-populated and over-represented States give the Republicans a serious start in this process, and they’re being destroyed in the popular vote. Paying attention yet?
Could some of them flip. Yes, Iowa is most likely. It went to Obama both times, but has more often voted Republican. Nevada and New Hampshire are close and could flip to the Republicans, but on the whole, barring a landslide, which is unlikely, these States will hold with these positions. Most important, the value of the 2 extra votes to the little States goes a long way to throwing the popular vote out the window. No way these 21 States, almost half of the 50, ever vote to eliminate the Electoral College, and you’d need a lot of them to make it happen.